Today’s markets
Still monitoring live readings and prices. Market confidence is not a confirmed outcome.
Tomorrow’s markets
Next-day prices and forecasts. Observations begin on the market date.
Sources, prices and settlement
Current temperature means the latest published observation, not a continuous sensor stream. HKO current temperature is pulled every 5 seconds; other sources stay on 30 seconds. The Observatory file itself may publish less frequently. All observation and market dates use UTC+8.
Hong Kong uses Hong Kong Observatory headquarters. Its running high is the published maximum of one-minute mean temperatures since midnight, which can differ from the absolute daily maximum used for market settlement.
Taipei current temperature uses the RCSS METAR observation from Aviation Weather Center, for Songshan Airport only—not citywide. Its observation time is shown in UTC+8; the full date remains in the timestamp tooltip. METAR errors retain the last good reading with an explicit warning; observations older than 75 minutes are stale. The running high remains the maximum in Weather Underground’s published Daily Observations for today, unchanged as the settlement reference. It is provisional, not a forecast or a final settlement value; METAR is never used for this maximum.
Manila current temperature uses the RPLL METAR observation from Aviation Weather Center for Ninoy Aquino International Airport only—not citywide—with the same observation-time and stale-data safeguards as Taipei. The provisional airport maximum also uses Aviation Weather Center (AWC), not NOAA’s resolution series: the highest reported same-day RPLL temperature in its 48-hour history, backfilled from midnight. It preserves source precision and the first observation carrying that maximum; later corrections can revise it. Reported hours and gaps are shown, and temperatures between reports remain unknown. It is not the official settlement high. Manila’s daily-high market uses NOAA’s RPLL temperature table as its primary resolution source; Weather Underground is only the rules-defined fallback. Automatic favourites use the latest valid full-ladder CLOB snapshot in the 90 seconds at or before previous-day 20:00 and same-day 08:00, with independent YES and NO best asks and exact receipt times. Missing historical cutoffs are not reconstructed from price-history proxies. All Manila dates and cutoffs use Asia/Manila (UTC+8).
Singapore current temperature uses the WSSS METAR observation from Aviation Weather Center for Singapore Changi Airport only—not citywide—with the same observation-time and stale-data safeguards as Manila. Singapore’s running daily maximum uses NOAA’s WSSS timeseries Temp column—the same table used for market settlement—with the time that high first appeared. Current temperature remains the latest WSSS METAR. Weather Underground is only the rules-defined fallback. All Singapore dates use UTC+8.
Kuala Lumpur current temperature and running daily maximum use NOAA’s WMKK timeseries Temp column—the same table used for market settlement. Current is the latest published reading. Running maximum is the highest same-day reading so far, with the time it first appeared in that series. Both update about every 30 seconds. They are provisional until the UTC+8 day ends; later corrections on the NOAA table can revise them.
The HKO forecast panel shows the latest forecast plus preserved previous-evening and morning highs for today. Forecasts are checked every 30 seconds; HKO controls publication times. The evening window is 16:00–23:59 on the previous day; the morning window is 00:00–11:59 today, all UTC+8. Each window uses the latest recorded local bulletin with an explicit high for today, or a clearly labelled nine-day forecast entry if no such local bulletin was recorded. Morning revisions update until noon, then remain preserved. Publication times are HKO issue times, not our collection times. “Not recorded” means no matching forecast is available in our archive, not that HKO issued none.
“Favourite” means highest market-implied probability, not trading volume. The favourite and its two immediately lower and two immediately higher temperature buckets are shown in ascending temperature order. At either end of the market range, the window shifts to show the nearest five available buckets. Equal-probability favourite ties are broken by bucket label, then market ID. Chance follows Polymarket’s displayed-price rule: use the YES midpoint unless the spread exceeds 10 points and the token-specific last trade lies inside that spread. That valid last trade is then used, but withheld if the spread exceeds 50 points. Otherwise a one-sided book uses its sole available quote; empty books have no chance value. BUY YES (green) and BUY NO (red) show each outcome’s lowest available asking price on the 0–100 cents-per-share scale, without cent symbols. These are separate buy quotes, not complementary probabilities, and need not sum to 100. Prices follow Polymarket’s public live order-book stream, with 30-second VPS snapshots as backup. Connection status is shown above; exact simultaneous display is not guaranteed. Available size, fees and order execution can affect the final purchase cost. Missing asks or backup quotes older than 90 seconds display a dash, never a substitute reference price.